作者:路人 4:20pm 09/02/2006
我回应Anna Teo的文章 '就业达到二百三十万的历史最高点' (BT, 2月2日) 。
根据新加坡国立大学经济学家Basant Kapur说, 这也许是一个构成因素, 只有在政府公开关于外国劳工在各个产业的数目和技能构成的更多数据后，这个问题才有可能更加清楚。
根据统计部门的最新的数据, 总人口增长从2004年4,240,300 到2005 年的4,351,400 - 增加111,100 。新加坡居民, 包括公民和永久居民,增加了66,600, 从3,486,900 增加到3,553,500。这意味着在人口增加中的外国人是 44,500 。
因为总出生人数是37,174 并且共计死亡是15,860, 在居民人口的净增量是21,314 。这意味着新永久居民的增加是44,686 (66,600 刨去21,314)?
如果这是实际情形, 那么增加人数中归因于外国人和永久居民是89,186 (44,500个外国人加上44,686位新永久居民) 。这是在总人口的增加的111,100 的百分之80 。
如果新加坡公民占只人口增量的百分之20, 为了更详细地了解失业情况, 有必要知道2005年所制造的110,000个新工作中对于新加坡公民和非公民所占的比例。
是哪一个问题比较大? 不让其他人知道我们对外国劳工有多依赖, 还是帮助64,000个失业者?
去年12月新加坡人和永久居民经季度调整后的失业率, 从9月的百分之4.4和2004年12月的百分之4下降为百分之3.3。 也许在某个新加坡人头脑的问题会是: 新加坡人失业率是多少?
Leong Sze Hian
Published February 9, 2006
It has often been asked whether the inflow of cheap, low-skilled foreign workers into Singapore over the years has depressed wages at the bottom end.
This may have been a contributing factor, according to National University of Singapore economist Basant Kapur, who said greater clarity will only be possible if the government releases more data on the size and skills make-up of the foreign-worker workforce in individual industries.
The government has maintained that this is sensitive data kept secret for reasons of national interest. It does not want to expose Singapore's vulnerability in terms of its dependence on foreign labour.
Keeping data secret may be disadvantageous to Singapore, as we may in a sense be letting others draw the conclusion that we are so dependent on foreign labour that we are afraid to reveal it.
I support the workfare proposals as they encourage self-reliance by working, and would like to suggest that we explore more measures to help Singaporeans to get jobs vis-a-vis foreigners who may be competing for the same jobs.
Singapore residents, comprising citizens and permanent residents, increased by 66,600, from 3,486,900 to 3,553,500. This means that the increase in the population due to foreigners was 44,500.
As total live-births were 37,174 and total deaths were 15,860, the net increase in the resident population was 21,314.
Does this mean that the increase due to new permanent residents was 44,686 (66,600 minus 21,314)?
If this is the case, then the increase due to foreigners and permanent residents was 89,186 (44,500 foreigners plus 44,686 new permanent residents).
This is 80 per cent of the 111,100 increase in the total population.
If Singaporeans accounted for only 20 per cent of the population increase, in order to get a more detailed picture of the unemployment situation, it's necessary to know the proportion of the 110,000 new jobs created in 2005 that went to Singaporeans vis-a-vis non-citizens.
Which is the bigger problem? Not letting others know how dependent we are on foreign labour, or helping the 64,000 unemployed?
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Singaporeans and permanent residents was 3.3 per cent last December, down from 4.4 per cent in September and 4 per cent in December 2004. The question that may be on the minds of some Singaporeans is: what is the unemployment rate for Singaporeans?
I think we need to balance the need for foreign labour data secrecy with more transparency to enable all stakeholders to work together to help the 300,000 people who earn less than $1,200 a month.
Leong Sze Hian
本文修改于: 10:17pm 09/02/2006