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01览:053 中国魔镜 作者:网龙
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作者:网龙 3:03pm 12/03/2011

竹中平藏:中国魔镜  The Chinese Mirror By Heizo Takenaka        03-03 17:05 Caijing  

  发自东京——20世纪的最后十年为所有渴望窥知亚太地区未来的人提供了一个水晶球。曾经占据区域老大地位的日本自资产泡沫爆破之后就走向了“迷失”,而走出了1989年天安门事件后期经济停滞的中国则迈向了如今的强劲增长之路。10年前流行的那场针对中国快速增长的辩论——所谓这种增长究竟是威胁还是机会——如今已尘埃落定,大多数人都同意缺少了中国就不可能有更大范围的区域经济发展。
TOKYO – The closing decade of the twentieth century offered a crystal ball for anyone peering into the future of the Asia-Pacific region. Japan’s economy, once the region’s leader, was “lost” after its asset bubble burst, whereas China overcame the economic stagnation that followed the Tiananmen Square crisis of 1989 to achieve its current path of strong growth. The debate raging 10 years ago about China’s rapid growth – whether it represents a danger or an opportunity – has now settled into broad agreement that wider regional development would be impossible without it.

  对亚太地区乃至整个世界来说,更深入的地缘政治影响将取决于发生在中国身上的三个关键变化。
  首先是中国经济的增长模式,目前主要还是由快速增长的生产要素投入——劳动力、资本和能源——来实现,但最近有研究显示中国约有1/3的经济增长来自技术进步,或是源自总生产要素生产力的提升。换言之,中国的发展模式已经开始向发达经济体靠拢,意味着其增长将日趋平衡。
Further geo-political implications for the region and the world follow from three key changes in China. The first concerns the pattern of Chinese economic growth, which so far has been achieved mainly by rapid increases in factor inputs – labor, capital, and energy. But recent research suggests that about one-third of China’s economic growth comes from technological progress, or from the increase in total factor productivity. In other words, China’s growth pattern is becoming similar to that of industrialized economies, suggesting that growth will be increasingly balanced.

  第二种转变则是人民币势必在未来几年内持续升值。尽管各国政府施加了强大压力要求人民币在该国庞大的贸易顺差下升值,但考虑到目前中国经济对出口的依赖程度,中国政府依然对其货币的大幅币值重估有所保留。但中国官员也意识到人民币升值同样符合本国的利益,因为这有助于缓和国内的通胀压力。因此中国政府似乎已经准备好让人民币升值,问题只不过是速度快慢而已。
The second transformation is the substantial appreciation of the renminbi that seems inevitable in the coming years. Today, given the importance of exports to China’s economy, its government is reluctant to permit a major revaluation, despite strong pressure by foreign governments to allow the renminbi to appreciate in line with the country’s huge trade surplus. But Chinese officials know that renminbi appreciation is also in China’s interest, as they seek to dampen inflationary pressures. China’s government therefore appears ready to allow the renminbi to appreciate, the question being how fast.

  在2003年到2005年间(距离雷曼兄弟破产还有很长一段时间),人民币升值了20%。考虑到中国经济的快速增长和人民币的日渐强势,中国的GDP(以国际外汇市场美元汇率计算)将可能比原先预期更早地超越美国(大概会在10-15年内)。如果用购买力平价计算的话,中国GDP将在2015年达到美国的水平,并因此改写世界的经济实力格局。
From 2003-2005, long before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the renminbi appreciated by 20%. In light of China’s rapid economic growth and the renminbi’s growing strength, Chinese GDP (based on the market dollar rate) will likely exceed that of the US much earlier than expected, possibly in 10-15 years. And, when measured in terms of purchasing power parity, China’s GDP will reach that of the US around 2015, thus changing the world’s balance of economic power.

  第三个转变则是人口:中国长期奉行的独生子女政策将导致劳动人口数量在2010年代中期开始下降。而该现象将阻碍经济的发展,也令中国国内问题的有效治理更加复杂化,其中包括巨大的贫富收入差距以及缺乏能够疏导民众愤怒并传达需求的政治体制。
The third transformation is demographic: the fallout from China’s official one-child policy, which will cause the working-age population to start declining in the mid-2010’s. This will cause economic growth to slacken, complicating effective management of China’s domestic problems, which range from deep income disparities to the lack of political institutions capable of channeling popular grievances and demands.

  虽然中国的GDP规模极为庞大且持续增长,其人均收入却一直偏低,奉行的经济政策也与亚太地区的经合组织国家大不相同。因此未来4~6年内逐渐凸显的地缘政治图景也将反映出亚洲其他地区所发生的变化。
Although Chinese GDP is large and growing, its per capita income is still low, and its economic policies differ sharply from those prevailing in the region’s OECD countries. The geopolitical landscape that emerges around the middle of this decade will thus reflect significant changes elsewhere in Asia as well.

  即便如此,中国的政策取向早已极大影响了其他亚洲国家,其“国家资本主义”经济模式也吸引了众多亚洲追随者。日本,韩国和新加坡三国曾经拥有相似的政策模式(虽然它们随后都将其与本国的GDP增长挂钩),到如今这些国家却又重拾国家资本主义并再度执行工业政策(其中当然也包括2008年全球金融危机的影响,为政府干预提供了一个新的理由)。
Even so, Chinese policy choices significantly influence other Asian countries, with China’s “state capitalist” economic model now being mimicked elsewhere in the region. Of course, Japan, Korea, and Singapore had similar policy models in the past (though they later adapted them in line with their GDP growth). Now, however, these countries are once again espousing forms of state capitalism and a return to industrial policy (encouraged as well by the 2008 global financial meltdown, which gave a new rationale for a return to government intervention).

  在日本,原本私有化的邮政服务将再度收归国有,政府的金融角色也得到加强。濒临破产的日本航空公司最终在政府的财政救助下起死回生,而这种做法似乎日渐普遍。同样在许多亚洲国家都建立了主权财富基金之时,韩国政府如今也成立了一个新形式的基金去支持建造行业的出口。
In Japan, postal services that had been privatized are to be re-nationalized, and the role of government finance is being strengthened. Japan Air Lines, which was almost bankrupt, was rescued by a government bailout, a device that seems to be increasingly common. Similarly, while many Asian countries already have sovereign wealth funds, now South Korea’s government is establishing a new type of fund to support the construction sector’s export activities.

  简而言之,政府与商界之间的亲密关系在亚太地区又重新建立了起来。各国都尤其致力于通过公私合作的方式促进自身的大型工业基础设备出口。但这意味着需要建立一套国际准则来限制政府干预,或者至少定义哪些情况是可以接受的。为了实现这一点,美国和中国这两个市场经济运行观南辕北辙的大国就必须达成一致。
In short, closer business-government relationships are being re-established throughout the Asian-Pacific region. Countries are especially seeking to strengthen their infrastructure exports through a combination of public- and private-sector activity. But that means that international regulations will be needed to limit government intervention, or at least to define the circumstances in which it will be deemed acceptable. To achieve this, the United States and China must reconcile their very different views of how a market economy should operate.

  随着世界在一个新经济秩序的襁褓中挣扎,一个中美之间的第三方调解人将必不可少。对此日本将在亚太事务上承担这个角色,而欧洲则负责在全球事务上进行调停。如果欧洲能成功扮演这一角色的话,美中两国的紧张对峙状态将被消除,最终使全世界都有机会在这前两大经济体的力量中得益。
As the world begins to grapple with the creation of a new economic order, the moderating role of a third party in conflicts between the US and China will be extremely important. It is a role that will fall to Japan for Asian-Pacific issues, but to European countries on global issues. If Europe can successfully manage this role, US-China tensions can be overcome, offering the entire world the opportunity to harness and benefit from the strength of its two largest economies.

  竹中平藏曾于小泉纯一郎内阁中历任经济财政政策担当大臣,金融担当大臣以及总务大臣,现为东京庆应大学全球安全研究所所长
Heizo Takenaka was Minister of Economics, Minister of Financial Reform, and Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications under Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi; he is currently Director of the Global Security Research Institute at Keio University, Tokyo.



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